Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Unstable?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators
While macroeconomic variables have been used extensively to forecast the U.S. equity risk premium and build models to explain it, relatively little attention has been paid to the technical stock market indicators widely employed by practitioners. Our paper fills this gap by studying the forecasting ability of a variety of technical indicators in comparison to that of a number of well-known macr...
متن کاملOut-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Economic Fundamentals vs. Moving-Average Rules
This paper analyzes the ability of both economic variables and moving-average rules to forecast the monthly U.S. equity premium using out-of-sample tests for 1960–2008. Both approaches provide statistically and economically significant out-of-sample forecasting gains, which are concentrated in U.S. business-cycle recessions. Nevertheless, economic variables and moving-average rules capture diff...
متن کاملA Quantile Regression Approach to Equity Premium Prediction
We propose a quantile regression approach to equity premium forecasting. Robust point forecasts are generated from a set of quantile forecasts, using both xed and time-varying weighting schemes, thus exploiting the entire distributional information associated with each predictor. Further gains are achieved by incorporating the forecast combination methodology in our quantile regression setting...
متن کاملEstimating the Equity Premium
To estimate the equity premium, it is helpful to use finance theory: not the old-fashioned theory that efficient markets imply a constant equity premium, but theory that restricts the time-series behavior of valuation ratios, and that links the cross-section of stock prices to the level of the equity premium. Under plausible conditions, valuation ratios such as the dividend-price ratio should n...
متن کاملEstimating the Equity Premium
To estimate the equity premium, it is helpful to use finance theory: not the old-fashioned theory that efficient markets imply a constant equity premium, but theory that restricts the time-series behavior of valuation ratios, and that links the cross-section of stock prices to the level of the equity premium. Under plausible conditions, valuation ratios such as the dividend-price ratio should n...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2016
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2737275